Gold price slides to $2,315 level, multi-day low amid notable USD demand ahead of US data
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Gold price slides to $2,315 level, multi-day low amid notable USD demand ahead of US data

  • Gold price meets with a fresh supply on Tuesday amid the emergence of some USD buying.
  • Receding fears of a further escalation of geopolitical tensions further undermine the metal. 
  • Traders keenly await the FOMC decision and US macro data before placing directional bets.

Gold price (XAU/USD) extends its steady intraday descent through the first half of the European session on Tuesday and drops to a multi-day low, around the $2,315 region in the last hour. The US Dollar (USD) regains positive traction and reverses the previous day's slide back closer to a two-week low touched on Friday amid growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep rates higher for longer amis sticky inflation. This, along with easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, turn out to be key factors driving flows away from the safe-haven precious metal.

The downside for the Gold price, however, seems cushioned as traders might refrain from placing aggressive directional bets ahead of the crucial two-day FOMC meeting starting this Tuesday. Apart from this, the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report should provide cues about the Fed's rate-cut path, which, in turn, will drive the USD demand and determine the near-term trajectory for the non-yielding yellow metal. In the meantime, Tuesday's release of the Chicago PMI and the Conference Board's US Consumer Confidence Index might provide some impetus to the XAU/USD.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price continues losing ground amid goodish pickup in USD demand

  • Friday's release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index pointed to still sticky inflation and reaffirmed bets that the Federal Reserve will begin its rate-cutting cycle only in September. 
  • Hawkish Fed expectations act as a tailwind for the US Dollar, which, along with a generally positive risk tone, turn out to be key factors that contribute to capping the upside for the non-yielding Gold price.
  • The global risk sentiment remains well supported on the back of receding fears about any further escalation of conflict between Iran and Israel and the latest optimism over Israel-Hamas peace talks in Cairo.
  • Traders, however, now seem to have moved to the sidelines and refrain from positioning for a firm near-term direction ahead of this week's key central bank event risk and important US economic releases.
  • The Fed is scheduled to announce its policy decision at the end of a two-day meeting on Wednesday, which will be followed by the release of the closely watched US jobs data, or the Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday.
  • Investors will look for cues about the Fed's future policy decisions and rate-cut path, which, in turn, should influence the USD price dynamics and help in determining the near-term trajectory for the XAU/USD. 
  • In the meantime, Tuesday's US economic docket – featuring the Chicago PMI and the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index – might provide some impetus later during the North American session.

Technical Analysis: Gold price now seems vulnerable to slide further, towards testing sub-$2,300 levels

From a technical perspective, the Gold price has been struggling to make it through the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) barrier over the past two days. The said hurdle, currently pegged near the $2,346 region, now coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent pullback from the all-time peak and should act as a key pivotal point. This is followed by 50% Fibo. level, around the $2,352-2,353 area, which if cleared could lift the Gold price to the next relevant hurdle near the $2,371-2,372 region. The momentum could extend further towards the $2,400 round figure en route to the all-time peak, around the $2,431-2,432 area touched earlier this month.

On the flip side, some follow-through selling and acceptance below the 100-hour SMA could make the Gold price vulnerable to retesting last week's swing low, around the $2,292-2,291 zone, with some intermediate support near the $2,320 region. The subsequent downfall has the potential to drag the XAU/USD further towards the next relevant support near the $2,268-2,265 area.

Economic Indicator

Fed Monetary Policy Statement

Following the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate decision, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) releases its statement regarding monetary policy. The statement may influence the volatility of the US Dollar (USD) and determine a short-term positive or negative trend. A hawkish view is considered bullish for USD, whereas a dovish view is considered negative or bearish.

Read more.

Next release: Wed May 01, 2024 18:00

Frequency: Irregular

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Source: Federal Reserve