The Japanese Yen (JPY) rises against its American counterpart in the early New York session amid speculations that Japan's financial authorities intervened again, for a second time this week, with intention to prop up the domestic currency provided a strong boost to the JPY. Reuters reported that the BoJ data on Thursday suggested that Japanese officials may have spent 3.26 trillion to 3.66 trillion yen ($21.01 billion to $23.59 billion) on Wednesday to pull the yen back from near 34-year lows. Reuters added the central bank's projection for Tuesday's money market conditions indicated a 4.36 trillion yen net receipt of funds, compared with a 700 billion-1.1 trillion yen estimate from money market brokerages that excludes intervention.
Apart from this, a generally positive risk tone is seen undermining the US Dollar and acting as a headwind for the USD/JPY pair. That said, the prevalent US Dollar (USD) selling, led by receding fears about further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed), keeps a lid on any meaningful appreciating move for the currency pair. Traders now look to the US macro data, including the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and ISM Services PMI data, which are scheduled for Friday.
From a technical perspective, the overnight bounce from the 200-period Simple Moving Average on the 4-hour chart and the subsequent move beyond the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of this week's sharp pullback from a multi-decade high favor bullish traders. That said, mixed oscillators on hourly/daily charts warrant some caution before positioning for any further intraday appreciating move, suggesting that the USD/JPY pair might confront some resistance near the 50% Fibo. level, around the 156.55 region. Some follow-through buying, however, will suggest that the recent corrective slide from the all-time peak has run its course and pave the way for additional gains.
On the flip side, weakness back below the 155.70 area could drag the USD/JPY pair back towards the 155.00 psychological mark en route to the 154.50-154.45 support zone. Failure to defend the latter might expose the Asian session low, around the 153.00 round figure, with some intermediate support near the 154.00 mark and the 153.60 region.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%.
The Bank of Japan has embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy since 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds.
The Bank’s massive stimulus has caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process has exacerbated more recently due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which have opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy of holding down rates has led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen.
A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices have led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which has exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. Still, the Bank judges that the sustainable and stable achievement of the 2% target has not yet come in sight, so any sudden change in the current policy looks unlikely.
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