EUR to come under pressure if the Eurosystem withdraws as a buyer of government bonds – Commerzbank

The ECB holds its regular monetary policy meeting today. The actual rate decision is unlikely to provide much of a surprise, economists at Commerzbank report.

ECB widely expected to keep rates on hold

All 51 economists polled by Bloomberg – just like our economists – expect unchanged rates.

There were some officials who were considering an early end to the PEPP reinvestments – at present, this is projected for late 2024. At first glance, it might not make that much sense why this would be relevant for the Euro. However, concerns regarding national finances have been on the rise globally. If the Eurosystem increasingly withdraws as a buyer of government bonds, that is likely to intensify the problems that would affect the EUR. In view of these issues, the ECB will probably want to avoid a premature decision.

There is a lot to suggest that the ECB meeting will be much quieter than was the case over the past months. That does not mean though that individual statements at the press conference will not cause increased volatility, as the ECB provided some surprises every so often over the past months that came unexpected to most market participants.