Crude Oil falls, WTI back below $79.00 and threatens to sink back into congestion
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Crude Oil falls, WTI back below $79.00 and threatens to sink back into congestion

  • Overextended Crude Oil markets retreat despite OPEC extension.
  • Markets are taking profits and pulling back bids.
  • Fed rate expectations and no-OPEC production caps gains.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil softened on Monday, testing below $79.00 per barrel and markets pull back from the recent bullish pop out of near-term congestion that has seen barrel bids grind slowly higher.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) formally announced that they would be extending Q1 production cuts through the second quarter, and possibly longer if needed. Markets have largely priced in the production cap extension from OPEC, and the announcement failed to generate bullish momentum in Crude Oil.

Key non-OPEC Crude Oil producers, specifically the US, have continued to outperform market expectations. The US is producing record amounts of Crude Oil, and US Crude oIl stocks have been swamping refinery supply lines recently, keeping topside Crude Oil momentum limited.

Markets continue to get pushed further down the calendar on Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut expectations, keeping risk appetite pinned on the lower side, helping to force down barrel bids. Markets are also becoming inured to geopolitical headlines from both the Gaza conflict between Israel and Hamas, and supply line concerns stemming from Houthi rebel attacks in the Red Sea are becoming normalized.

WTI technical outlook

Monday’s bearish pulldown in WTI US Crude Oil saw barrel shed the $79.00 handle, and price pressures are pointed to the downside despite recent price action grinding higher from last week’s swing low into $76.00.

Daily candles are drifting back into touch range of the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $77.75, WTI bidders have a growing hill to climb over as bids tumble back below January’s peak at $79.20.

WTI hourly chart

WTI daily chart


Today last price 78.47
Today Daily Change -0.87
Today Daily Change % -1.10
Today daily open 79.34
Daily SMA20 76.95
Daily SMA50 74.95
Daily SMA100 76.26
Daily SMA200 77.73
Previous Daily High 80.33
Previous Daily Low 77.66
Previous Weekly High 80.33
Previous Weekly Low 75.73
Previous Monthly High 79.27
Previous Monthly Low 71.46
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 79.31
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 78.68
Daily Pivot Point S1 77.89
Daily Pivot Point S2 76.44
Daily Pivot Point S3 75.22
Daily Pivot Point R1 80.56
Daily Pivot Point R2 81.78
Daily Pivot Point R3 83.23